Seed Consultants Market Wrap Up 7/5/12 with Gary Wilhemi

first_img By Hoosier Ag Today – Jul 5, 2012 Facebook Twitter Previous articleNPPC, NCBA Pleased with Decision on RactopamineNext articleHouse Farm Bill Released by Ag Committee Leaders Hoosier Ag Today Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Wrap Up 7/5/12 with Gary Wilhemi SHARE FinancialEmployment report Friday AM with an expectation of 100,000 new jobs, but some see it as high as 160,000The strong dollar may be a hint as we do better than our European ancestorsCrude oil holding steady was another positive indicatorDow closed off 47 as the service sector measure was disappointingReduced Chinese, ECB and UK rates had little impact on their marketsIf the Fed is to be motivated to stimulate the economy it will take a better jobs report.Remember, the report is just one month so don’t get carried awayIMF warns the US to take proactive steps to guard against the first of the year fiscal cliff as tax cuts expire and debt deepensLivestockCattle producers have $170 per head losses in their lotsSpiraling feed costs and dried cup pastures are a deadly comboHeat beats up on meat demand as the dog days have come a month earlyFeeder cattle remain squarely in the sights of the runaway feed marketsCash hogs off $2Pork cutout toppy off $2.29 with loins down $5Super heat literarily trims the fat off animalsGrain and soybeansDecember corn ran up to $7.08, November soybeans $15.27 and September wheat $8.38Rationing will mean reduced feed usage, lower ethanol production that is currently off 5.2% from last year and exports in lesser amounts due the strong dollar.How high is high? There is no telling as the drought with 76% agricultural coverage, shows no sign of relentingThis could reach national disaster proportionsEurope is struggling to stimulate their economies and they are our best customersChina is slowing and Japan has been in the soup for yearsS American crop potential is good at the moment after having a punishing year last season.The solar conditions now look disturbingly similar to the dust bowl and that’s statistically verifiableIt is already too late to help much of our corn as it is over 50% pollinating and that’s why we are over $7 on December and stampeding higher as we had August weather in June and now its worse.Any sign of relief, and it may be cooler next week and look out, rain well that’s a different story.But, what goes up 34 in corn and 52 cents in beans one day can go down even quicker12:58pm ETDollar index up 1%Cattle feeders losing $170 per headBeef demand burnt by heatCash hogs off $2 and futures the sameRussian spring crops hit by dryness cutting exports and rising pricesDec corn has been over $7, Nov. beans above $15 and Sept wheat beyond $810:43am ETCorn and soybean usage contraction to match up with falling yields will come from reduced ethanol production, decreased feed utilization and lower exportsUkraine grain cut to 20-21 MT by weather (Most important growth area)Bulgaria has a wetter spring and production will be around 4 MTRound numbers objectives at $7 in corn, $15 beans and $8 wheatCattle lack direction and open near unchangedHeavy hog kill presses futuresDow off 77Crude oil up $ .12 at $87.17Market OutlookFinancialChina, the UK and ECB lower interest rates but markets are not motivatedDow off 55DAX down .6%Jobs report Friday with about 100,000 new additions which may be enough to bar the Fed from further easingCostco and other chain retailers post slumping JuneDollar up sharply at 82.78 with a 52 week high at 83 .54Gold and other commodities lower by $12 in gold at $1604Euro falls to 1.24Hang Sang index up .5%LivestockChoice boxes fall to $193 and $177 on selectIt was as hot around the grill as on it yesterdayCattle kill on par at 129,000Pork cutout $2.29 lower, with loin’s down $5 and hams off $3.65Hog kill up to 423,000 from 404,000 last weekNow demand will be put to a heat testGrain and soybeansThree days with high near 100 degrees in Chicago with a mild cooling coming but no meaningful rainIt is getting too late for rain to help corn that is better than 50% pollinatingWe have another month of hunting and pecking regarding crop size before the August survey estimateDollar near its one year high chokes exportsMarkets closed on the 4th reopen at 9:30 CDT this morningDelta and Southeast may get some rain in 6-10 day time frame but not much and the Midwest will maintain a dry canteenEastern Europe into Russia and vicinity is a dryness curiosityExport sales Friday AMWheat yields also suffering as September reaches $8.00November beans have $15 in its sightsDecember corn surpasses $6.73 ½ resistance and could easily go over $7 based on present crop stressSome ethanol plants are struggling to stay afloat SHARE Facebook Twitter Seed Consultants Market Wrap Up 7/5/12 with Gary Wilhemilast_img

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